Why compensation picks are the new reserve clause

Ok, well, maybe not for all players.  But for certain players, such as John Grabow (who is a type A middle reliever), they will not be able to find another team willing to give up a 1st round draft pick in order to sign them.  In Buster Olney’s blog, he has a quote from an AL GM who says, “If they offered [Grabow] arbitration, there’s no chance another team would sign him. You’re not going to give up a No. 1 pick for a middle reliever.”  This is a fairly recent phenomenon, as teams have just started figuring out the value of Rule 4 picks.

We saw this happen last year when players like Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz, and Orlando Cabrera were offered arbitration which drove their prices and bargaining position way down in the free agency market.  For players like Grabow, clubs won’t be willing to give up a first round draft pick to sign them.  This essentially forces the player to either go to arbitration (which typically won’t give the player the raise they would get on the FA market) or try to negotiate a new contract with the same club from a weak bargaining position.  Players can get a clause on their next contract that forbids teams from offering them arbitration (as Orlando Cabrera did), but, again, this drives down their value.

So for players in a certain strata (lower-end type A and lower-end type B) to stay in MLB, they are essentially forced to re-sign with their current team.  In effect, compensation picks allow teams to perpetually renew contracts for certain players, aka. the reserve clause.

For who say that compensation picks help lower-end teams like the Pirates, I would say that their supposed goal to compensate lower-end teams for losing players to free agency has failed.  Good players going to free agency typically come from good teams, so better clubs get more compensation picks.  Additionally, as the Yankees showed last year, if you have more spending power, you can get more type A free agents while giving up less.  They signed CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, but only had one first round pick to forfeit.

Hopefully, the MLBPA will manage to eliminate compensation picks during their next negotiations with ownership.

Arbitrary song of the day: Faded Paper Figures – B Film

5 Ways to Improve the MLB Draft

The Rule 4 Major League Baseball draft is coming up in about a month (June 9).  Unlike the NBA and NFL drafts which are surrounded by so much hoopla, the MLB draft is a relatively lowkey affair.  It wasn’t televised live until 2007.  I would absolutely like to see the draft made into a bigger deal, though I understand that it simply can’t be as important an event as the NBA and NFL drafts, where players can often make a large impact the first year after signing.  But here are some ideas that I think would improve the draft for the purpose of increased entertainment, strategy, and fairer player signing bonuses for lower selections.

No graduation requirement/age limit

It doesn’t make sense to me that players in places like the Dominican Republic or Venezuela can accept contracts at whatever age, such as Michel Ynoa who signed a multi-million dollar contract at age 16. Why should a player have to graduate from high school in order to get a job playing baseball?

I’m also tempted to say that the draft should apply to more than to just the United States and Canada, but I recognize that there are important differences in the way that US players are developed versus the way that Dominican talent is developed.  I would imagine that if the draft applied to international players, teams would have less incentive to develop baseball academies and contributing to the athletes’ communities.

Reduce the number of rounds

Currently, the draft runs 50 rounds (or until all teams pass), which is a comically long time.  For sake of comparison, the NBA and NFL drafts last two and seven rounds respectively.  The amateur draft used to be even longer, essentially lasting until everyone got sick of it and went home.  Future first-ballot Hall of Famer Mike Piazza was famously picked in the 62nd round.  If Mel Kiper did baseball, his mock draft board would need one of those sweet sliding ladders that large libraries use.  You could probably cut the draft to 25 or 20 rounds.  Let the players after that become free agents and sign where they want.  That would give them at least a little leverage in negotiations or allow them to sign close to their hometown or something.  It’s extremely unlikely that any one guy is going to make it to the big leagues, so the least you could do is let him work where he wants.  Keep in mind that players in these later rounds only get a couple thousand dollar signing bonuses and aren’t paid that well when playing in the minors.

Get rid of compensatory draft picks

Compensatory picks have almost the opposite effect of what they are supposed to be for.  Instead of compensating small-market teams who lose big-name players to free agency, it is rewarding the big-market teams who are signing these stars and later letting them go.  They can afford to risk offering arbitration (a necessary step in order to get compensatory picks) whereas teams with more limited budgets can’t do this.  Another side-effect (perhaps intentionally on the owners’ parts), is that teams aren’t willing to sign a Type-A or Type-B player for as much as they normally would because they would have to give up a draft pick.  We saw that this past offseason with Juan Cruz and Orlando Cabrera.

Allow trading of picks

This is a no-brainer.  I don’t see how anyone could be opposed to this.  It makes draft day more fun and it allows teams to be more flexible with the kinds of deals they make.

Implement hard-slotting for salaries for the first 5 rounds

This is probably my most controversial suggestion.  Some, such as Keith Law, have argued strongly against this, saying that hard-slotting and indeed the entire draft’s purpose is to drive down player signing bonuses and salaries by limiting player leverage.  But as a fan, I want to be entertained and, frankly, seeing teams pass up superior players in exchange for players with better “signability” is not entertaining.  I really don’t want to limit prospect’s salaries like this, as only a few of them will have long big league careers and I have no desire to see the owner’s pocket the extra cash, so I would suggest a very generous bonus slotting system whose values were proportional to the average Major League salary.  The top talents, like Stephen Strasburg, probably wouldn’t receive as much as they otherwise would, but some lesser players could potentially receive more money.  This would prevent ugly situations like the Nationals’ Aaron Crow debacle, the mess that was Pedro Alvarez’s contract negotiation, and more unfortunate outcomes like that of Matt Harrington, who was drafted five times but never signed a contract.  Anyway, the current slotting suggestions from the commissioner’s office are a joke and the only teams that follow them are the teams that are willing to draft poorly.

Arbitrary song of the day: Shakespear’s Sister – Black Sky (Dub Extravaganza part 2)

Notes on the ESPN

Today’s ESPN headlines seemed more negative/depressing than usual.  Let’s break down the 10 headlines on TWWL’s front page from today:

3 criminal acts
3 NFL player/team disputes
1 injury
1 disappointment
2 neutral

Anyway, ombudsman Le Anne Schreiber wrote her last column for ESPN where she talks about sports fans’ frustration with over-coverage of big names like Brett Favre, Terrell Owens, and Alex Rodriguez. I’d like to add to her commentary that ESPN should get rid of ridiculous stuff like “Titletown” and “Who’s Now?”, which quickly became a parody of itself.  And, please, show more game action on SportsCenter and fewer on-site reports and post-game sound bites.  I really don’t care if Pedro Gomez is knitting a scarf in Roger Clemens’ breakfast nook, just show me some damn hockey highlights.

Arbitrary song of the day: Luke Vibert – Breakbeat Metal Music

Pens trade for Bill Guerin

Last year, the Penguins traded a small boat of assets to the Thrashers in exchange for Marian Hossa.  I criticized the trade at the time, saying that they were giving up way more than they should.  This year, the Pens have acquired Bill Guerin from the Islanders.  Guerin is nowhere near the calibur of Hossa, but he adds a much needed winger to the Penguins lineup.  I love that the Penguins only give up a conditional draft pick, which can range from a 5th (a pretty useless pick) to a 3rd (meh) rounder if they make it to the second round of the playoffs.  There’s almost no downside to this deal with a good amount of upside.  He’s not a huge upgrade over Miroslav Satan, but for so little, he’s definitely worth a look.

Arbitrary song of the day: Aceyalone with RJD2 – A Beautiful Mine

Fantasy Baseball 2009 – Ryan Howard and Ichiro

I’m getting excited already for baseball of both the real and fantasy varieties.  Apparently, ESPN has their player projections and rankings up, which is nice despite some key players like Manny Ramirez not being signed and still a lot of starting positions being up in the air.  After looking at their projections and rankings, I thought I would talk about a couple players who I think will cost far too much on draft day than they’ll be worth: Ryan Howard and Ichiro.

Ryan Howard (20th overall) and Ichiro (21) are ranked way too highly for guys who will hurt you in certain categories.  My first thought is that someone like Howard should be paired with Ichiro, as they balance out each others weaknesses (AVG and RBI/HRs respectively).  But what happens if you pair them together?  This is more than conceivable if you’re picking 1st overall and take Howard and Ichiro at the turn for your 2nd and 3rd round picks.  Averaging their ESPN-projected stats together, you get two players with stats of 103 RBI, 90 R, 27 HR, 17 SB, .280 AVG.  That’s a good player, but is that a 2nd/3rd rounder?  I don’t think that is someone you want much more than the projections of Brandon Phillips (34) or  Jason Bay (37).

I also don’t understand why Ichiro is a dozen spots in front of Carl Crawford (33), who is projected for more HRs, almost 50% more RBI(!), and more SB.  This at least balances out Ichiro’s other advantages.  Also, do people actually want Ichiro more than Ian Kinsler (26), whose stats are at least as good and plays 2B?

What is even more amazing is that Ryan Howard is more than 90 spots over a very comparable player.  If you’ve read this far, you can probably guess that this player is Adam Dunn (112).  Dunn is better than a poor man’s Howard – he’s more of a middle class man’s Howard.  He’ll probably end up just a bit lower than Howard in everything except SBs, but they’re closer than you think.  If you’re in a league where you can punt a category (H2H leagues in general), punting batting average with players like Howard, Dunn, Chris Young, Carlos Pena, and some younger players with possible contact problems like Jay Bruce and Justin Upton could be a pretty interesting strategy.

Arbitrary song of the day: The Rolling Stones – Play With Fire

Scattered thoughts on Super Bowl XLIII

• I really dislike how much nonsense there is around the Super Bowl.  I don’t mind the excessive amount of writing, stories, and such the week before, but I don’t want it interfering with the game itself.  The insane amount of pre-game coverage, non-football related sideline reports, and just all the stuff distracting from the game itself is what I hate.  Worst of all is the half time show.  I have never once been interested in the Super Bowl halftime show and I doubt this will change.  This is even more true now that the NFL has instituted an old-white-male-rocker-only policy with regards to who they have.  Actually, I guess Prince isn’t white, but he’s from Minnesota, so that’s close enough.  Anyway, because of all this, I will be turning on the TV at 6:25 and leaving during the halftime show.  I wish the Super Bowl was treated more like the AFC/NFC Championship games.

• I really only like Dave Dameshek in the context of Bill Simmons, such as Wednesday’s B.S. Report on the Super Bowl.  Dameshek is a bit too “radio” for me with the goofy sounds and segments.  Sorry, Dave.  I think that’s why I like Simmons’ podcast so much; he’s funny and fairly insightful (especially so with regards to basketball) without any of the reactionary retardation that comes with being on the radio (*cough*Jim Rome*cough*).  Also, I’m completely with Dameshek and Simmons on Mike Tomlin being the coolest coach.

• Apparently, the football Hall of Fame announced their selections.  No one really cares about the football Hall of Fame the way they do about the baseball Hall of Fame.  It’s fascinating how much was written about this past baseball election, but how little was written about this past football one.  The NFL is (has always been?) much more focused on the present.  Rod Woodson got in though, which is nice.  Bob Smizik says that anti-Steelers bias kept out Dermontti Dawson, which is absolutely braindead.  If anything, it’s a bias against linemen in general.

• What would have happened if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had gotten to the Super Bowl?  Would they still be holding the Super Bowl in Tampa?  That clearly wouldn’t be fair in the least.  Shouldn’t the NFL have some sort of alternate site set up in case the city hosting a Super Bowl makes it there?  Having home field advantage for the biggest game of the year would be a huge, undeserved advantage.

• A few interesting Super Bowl related links:
  • Joe Posnanski’s thoughts on the Steelers AFC Championship as someone who grew up in Cleveland
  • Craig Calcaterra’s comments on a couple Super Bowl things
  • Cracked’s 10 Worst Choices for the Super Bowl halftime show.  Gloria Estefan was in TWO Super Bowl halftime shows?  Really?
  • The B.S. Report – see “1/27″ and “1/28″ for Simmons’ Super Bowl podcasts.
  • The Onion has a whole slew of Super Bowl stories this week, but this one is my favorite.

Arbitrary song of the day: Nobukazu Takemura – Anemometer

The most poignant ESPN poll ever

I’m surprised it’s this close – it’s obviously going to be tails.

Arbitrary song of the day: Charles Mingus – Fables of Faubus

What you’ve missed this offseason…

Well, these are some arbitrary bits of it anyway:

Pat Burrell signs with Devil Rays for $16M/2Y

The Devil Rays had a couple of the easier holes to fill this offseason: RF and DH.  Burrell should be able to be a great DH and almost competent RF.  The Devil Rays had a terrible DH situation last year.  I fully expect Burrell to continue to an effective hitter for the next 2 years.

Jason Giambi

Yeah, the A’s got him on a decent contract for 2009 with a 2010 club option, but he’s not really what they needed.  A lot of folks at Athletics Nation still say the A’s should have signed Rafael Furcal, but if I had to guess, I would say that two years from now, they’ll be glad the A’s didn’t sign him.  Anyway, I like the deal a lot more if Giambi is the DH and pushed Jack Cust out to LF (rather than Giambi playing 1B).  There are a lot of views that can be taken about Daric Barton’s 2008, but the bottom line is that they need to give him more time to prove/disprove himself.  Unrelated, but why won’t some team give Matt Murton a chance to start?  What has this guy done to deserve being ignored like this?

Devil Rays trade Edwin Jackson to Tigers for Matt Joyce

Joyce is a legitimate prospect and getting him for the spotty at best Jackson is a heist.  I would guess that Joyce could be become a decent regular in RF and Jackson will have an ERA over 5.  I don’t understand what scouts have seen in Edwin Jackson that makes them say that he has such high potential.  He has a “meh” strikeout rate (that’s a technical scouting term) and has the control of, well, someone who has very little control.  Like, say, a field mouse piloting a cheetah.  Let’s go with that.

Rockies trade Matt Holliday to A’s for Greg Smith, Huston Street, and Carlos Gonzalez

This has to be the most intriguing trade of the offseason.  Greg Smith has limited upside (he’s 25 already), but could still turn into something decent.  Huston Street is a very good reliever, but the A’s already have a lot of other great bullpen arms, including Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine*.  Carlos Gonzalez has tools, but given that the A’s already had a lot of toolsy OFs without much power, he’s not that huge of a loss.  But if anyone makes this deal look bad for the A’s, it will be Gonzalez.

*Could the Braves have handled Joey Devine any worse?  They rushed him to the majors at age 21 where he bombed.  They then juggled him through minor league levels until they sold him low to the A’s for Mark Kotsay(!).  And his ERA the first year with the A’s: 0.59(!!!).

The Yankees

I love this, I really do.  MLB would be a lot less fun without the Yankees making these huge F-U free agent splurges.  And what’s really ridiculous about this, is that the free agent compensation system makes this advantageous for them.  With each signing they are losing a draft pick, but the picks they’re losing are getting worse and worse (1st on Teixera, 2nd on Sabathia, etc…).  At these low prices, how could they afford not to sign AJ Burnett?  Also, I love the trade for Nick Swisher.  I think he’s a good bounce back candidate and they gave away almost nothing.

The Giants

I’m not the huge fan of the Edgar Renteria signing as some of the writers are, but it probably won’t be horrific.  I know Keith Law and Rob Neyer liked the Jeremy Affeldt signing, but I’m not that enthused with him.  Up until last year at age 29, Affeldt hadn’t done much since a solid year in 2003 as a starter.  Also, Giants fans better hope the team doesn’t put Jonathan Sanchez in the bullpen.

The Pirates

Neal Huntington has really done much this offseason, but, really, what is there for him to do?  He made his big moves at the deadline last season.  It appears that Huntington won’t be paying for replacement level guys and at above replacement level prices (*cough*Luis Rivas*).  This is in direct contrast to the next club…

The Royals

Oh, god.  They’ve acquired Mike Jacobs, Willie Bloomquist, and Coco Crisp to go with Jose Guillen, Miguel Olivo, and the rest.  It’s like they hate getting on base.

Arbitrary song of the day: Layo & Bushwacka! – Love Story

The Gambler’s Fallacy

The gambler’s fallacy is one of the more well-known fallacies, but people still fall victim to it in everyday analysis.  This is not to be confused with the gambler’s phallus, which, unfortunately, people still fall prey to as well.  In some sort of shell most appropriate for a nut, the gambler’s fallacy is assuming that past events influence statistically independent future events.  So, if your friend beats you five times in a row at war, you might incorrectly assume that you are more likely to win next time since winning six times in a row is very unlikely.

Ok, so what does this have to do with, y’know, interesting things?  Well, today the Pittsburgh Steelers play the Baltimore Ravens.  In the regular season, the Steelers beat the Ravens in both of their encounters.  I’ve heard many analysts use the old standby of pointing out how difficult it is to beat an NFL team three times in a single season.  By using the gambler’s fallacy, they surmise that beating a team a third time is somehow more difficult than beating a team a first or a second.  That’s like flipping a coin and saying that it’s more likely that you’ll get heads the first time than the third time.  Actually, it’s even dumber, since football games are more predictable than coin tosses.  If a team beats another team twice, wouldn’t that signal to you that one team is better than the other and would thus be more likely to win a third time?

The numbers support this, albeit in a limited sample size, with the two-game-winning team possessing a record of 11-7 since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.  I’m not saying the Steelers will win, especially since the two regular season games were very close.  I’m just saying that I’d rather be the 2-0 team than the 0-2 team.

For some bonus statistics enjoyment, check out Jeff Atwood’s write-up of the Boy or Girl problem.  While his phrasing of the question may not be perfect, his explanation is thorough.  Check it out if you enjoy things like the Monty Hall problem.

Arbitrary song of the day: Klaxons – Atlantis to Interzone

Future Hall of Fame Candidates (Young ‘Uns)

On to the young baseball players who will be future Hall of Fame candidates.  You can find part 1 here and part 2 here.  Clearly, these are extremely speculative, but fun nonetheless.

Almost Certainly

Hanley Ramirez – Even with terrible fielding, his kind of offense at SS is extremely valuable.  His skill set will age extremely gracefully.

Probably

Evan Longoria – Yes, his first season was that impressive

Scott Kazmir – A big red health flag, but as good as stuff as any pitcher in the league

Tim Lincecum – Already won a Cy Young award, you have to like his chances

Felix Hernandez – Only 23 next year and can still improve a lot

Cole Hamels – The NLCS MVP and WS MVP from last year will definitely help him out 20 years from now

Maybe

Nick Markakis – He’s been steadily improving each year and he still has a good deal of potential left

Justin Upton – As a great a set of skills you’ll see on any prospect

Matt Wieters – He’s absolutely devastated minor league pitching in his first pro year.  He’s possibly the best offensive prospect in the minors right now.  That, coupled with the fact that he plays catcher really tempted me to bump him up to “Probably”, but that would be way too eager and optimistic.

Brian McCann – Extremely underrated offensive and defensive catcher

Prince Fielder – He could become known as the best 1B of his generation

Dustin Pedroia – Well-rounded skillset, still too early to tell if he can stay this much better than everyone expected

Jon Lester – Being on the Red Sox will help, as will the craziness of having crushed cancer

Chad Billingsley – It’s going to keep on coming together for him

Unlikely

Ryan Braun – I’m still not entirely on the Braun-mobile, but it would be nice to add another Jew to the Hall

B.J. Upton – I think his 2007 was a bit of a fluke, but he still has a lot of potential

Edinson Volquez – Control is a huge question mark

Johnny Cueto - It’ll really be interesting to see whether Volquez or Cueto turns out better.  I know one thing though: I wouldn’t trust either of them to Dusty Baker

David Price – Everyone loves him, but still a lot of question marks with a young pitcher

Wow, that was quite the epic three-part list.  If you made it all the way through, congratulations!  Also, you should probably find better uses for your time.  Not that I’m much better since I spent much more time writing it…  Anyway, if there are any particularly notable omissions, I’d be glad to hear any opinions.

Arbitrary song of the day: Gorillaz – Kids with Guns